Background
Since its independence in 1966, Botswana has successfully conducted 6 decennial Population and Housing Censuses (PHCs). The 1st PHC was in 1971, and the most recent, and 6th was in March 2022. The 2022 PHC was the first-ever fully digital census to be conducted in Botswana. Both mapping and enumeration were conducted digitally. This was part of the 2020 round of census strategic plan by the United Nations Statistics Divisions (UNSD) to encourage and facilitate countries to conduct full digital census, with view improve overall quality of census data. Census data contributes to the improvement of life of the Batswana through providing the Government and other stakeholders with relevant, reliable and timely data and information for development planning, policy formulation and services delivery as well as for monitoring and evaluation of development programmes and plans. Further, census data is an important tool for measuring and assessing development frameworks including the National Development Plans, the MDGs and the National Vision 2036. All of these lay emphases on combating HIV/AIDS, reducing poverty and food insecurity, reducing maternal mortality, reducing gender inequality and inequities, including gender-based violence, improving adolescent and young people reproductive health and reproductive rights, reducing regional imbalance in development and improving service delivery through a policy of decentralization. The population is normally the focal point of development. It is therefore important to assess, as accurately as possible, the future size, composition, spatial distribution and characteristics of the population for a given geographical location. Therefore, elaborated population and socio-economic projections are required for prospective analyses and medium and/or long-term planning. This forecasting procedure requires prior understanding of the dynamics of population, especially with regards to fertility, mortality and migration processes. Projections are constructed in several stages or geographical levels. Depending on the user specific needs, these could include national, district and village levels. National projections are usually used for macro-economic planning, whereas district and village projections will be used for planning purposes at those levels. Several variant projections are produced based on sound assumptions about future trends in demographic parameters. For instance, projections are run for a specific period in order to test the consistency of various parameters. Projections are run again for the same period but with mortality altered to remove the effects of AIDS. In parallel, projections of deaths due to AIDS are derived. Projecting with different levels of mortality, fertility, and migration will produce different scenarios.
Purpose and Objective
This consultancy is meant to guide the production of variant 15-year population projections for Botswana, starting from the 2023 census to 2037.
✓ To generate population projections at different geographical levels.
Deliverables
✓ Population Projections assumptions.
✓ Population Projections tables.
✓ Enhanced technical capacity in the development of Population Projections for core staff of Statistics Botswana.
Methodology -
✓Assess datasets of existing data sources for the generation of projections;
✓Desk-review of relevant data sources for drafting of relevant assumptions;
✓Facilitate a stakeholder consultation forum on the drafting of assumptions;
✓Generate projections and impart skills to core Statistics Botswana staff;
✓Formulate recommendations and relevant follow-up actions for the maintenance and improvement of the production of further projections
Proposed Work Plan and Timing
Week1
• Courtesy calls to the Rep (UNFPA),Statistician General and SB core team
• Review of documents
• Drafting of projection assumptions
Week 2
• Facilitation of stakeholder consultative workshop
• Development of projections
Week 3
• Development of projections
• Presentation of draft projections
• Finalization of projections report
The consultant should be available in Botswana for consultations, review of available data, capacitation of Statistics Botswana, and drafting of projections assumptions.
Delivery dates and how work will be delivered (e.g. electronic, hard copy etc.): The consultancy will run from 2 June, to 31 July 2025, while deliverables will be submitted electronically.
How to apply: Interested applicants should send a letter of motivation and a detailed CV with the subject
clearly stated "Consultancy – Population Projections for Botswana: 2023 - 2038" to recruitment.bw@unfpa.org by May 19, 2025.
See the attached Terms of Reference for more details.